SpaceX has accused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of presenting a report to Congress on the dangers of falling debris from U.S.-licensed satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) that is based on flawed analysis. In a letter directed to both the FAA and Congress, SpaceX principal engineer David Goldstein criticized the report, arguing that it relies on outdated studies and flawed analysis.
The FAA report had warned that if U.S.-licensed constellations continued to deploy as planned, falling space debris could potentially cause injuries or fatalities every two years by 2035. The report estimated that by that year, 28,000 hazardous fragments from de-orbiting satellites and rockets could survive reentry annually, with over 85% of that risk attributed to SpaceX’s Starlink satellites. SpaceX has launched 5,000 of these satellites since 2019 and is seeking approval to expand the constellation to 40,000.
According to the FAA report, the current success rate for post-mission disposal in the space industry falls short of the target of 90%. However, SpaceX has claimed a success rate of over 99%. They argue that their satellites are designed to fully demise during atmospheric reentry and that no reports have been made regarding their debris reaching the ground.
The FAA acknowledged in its report that if SpaceX’s claims are accurate, the increase in reentry risks would be minimal. The report also highlighted the growing risk of falling debris from rockets used to launch large constellations, as their upper stages typically remain in orbit and pose a greater threat upon reentry.
To mitigate the risks associated with satellite constellations reentering from LEO, the FAA’s draft regulations necessitate that U.S. commercial launch providers deorbit spent upper stages after each launch. This measure aims to reduce orbital debris and protect people on the ground from potential harm.
However, the FAA admitted that it lacks the authority to adequately address the risks connected to satellite constellations reentering from LEO. The agency emphasized that any rule-making efforts would depend on other agencies taking action to regulate this issue.
It remains to be seen how SpaceX’s argument against the FAA report’s analysis will be resolved and what steps will be taken to address the rising concern of falling debris from satellite constellations in LEO. As this debate continues, the importance of responsibly managing orbital debris and ensuring the safety of both space assets and people on the ground remains paramount.
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